A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
